From the figures describing land use in France (source IFEN), I calculated the total surface covered by buildings, roads, and artificial surfaces not built (typically gardens). I also calculated the rate of increase of these various surfaces (below, surfaces are in square km).
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| Artificialized land not built |
13 236 |
2,42% |
13 534 |
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13 936 |
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14 232 |
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14 553 |
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14 798 |
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| Built land |
9 424 |
1,72% |
9 589 |
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9 736 |
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9 848 |
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9 955 |
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10 077 |
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| Roads & parking lots |
15 354 |
2,80% |
1 5572 |
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15 798 |
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16 006 |
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16 246 |
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16 346 |
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| Forests |
144 221 |
26,32% |
145 920 |
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147 211 |
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148 097 |
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148 871 |
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149 292 |
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| Anual cultures |
151 558 |
27,66% |
151 990 |
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151 617 |
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151 413 |
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152 202 |
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153 115 |
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| Rocks and water |
18 373 |
3,35% |
18 308 |
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18 375 |
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18 373 |
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18 393 |
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18 416 |
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| Permanent cultures (fruit trees...) |
13 193 |
2,41% |
13 189 |
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13 080 |
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13 016 |
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12 899 |
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12 853 |
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| Grasslands |
116 888 |
21,33% |
115 105 |
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114 107 |
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113 766 |
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112 524 |
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111 267 |
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| Mountain pastures |
45 038 |
8,22% |
44 449 |
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44 068 |
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43 409 |
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42 951 |
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42 516 |
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| Scattered trees |
20 669 |
3,77% |
20 313 |
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20 046 |
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19 810 |
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19 359 |
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19 271 |
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| TOTAL |
547 954 |
547 969 |
547 974 |
547 970 |
547 953 |
547 951 |
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| Of which artificialized |
38 014 |
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38 695 |
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39 470 |
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40 086 |
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40 754 |
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41 221 |
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All this fits what we know : urbanized land and forests grow, while grasslands decrease. One of the driving forces of this evolution is something called peri-urbanization, which designates the process by which cities grow by increasing their suburbs.
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One might then ask oneself the following question : if we prolongate the present trends for converting "natural" land to "artifical" land, how long does it take to have cities and roads covering 100% of the mainland France ?
If we do that exercise, that is calculating the portion of the mainland covered by cities, roads, etc, by prolongating the average anual increase for the period 1992 - 1997 (that is 1,63% per year), we get the following curve :
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We see above that a prolongation of the present growth rate means that mainland France has been turned to a single city in 160 years. If we assume that we cannot do without a fat 50% for agriculture and forests, then it just takes a century to urbanize the remaining 50%.
Is it legitimate to assume a growth constant in percentage and not in absolute figures ? (which would mean so many hectares per year). We must remember that a growth expressed in percentage corresponds to the case when the yearly increase is proportional to the existing value. If the increase results from peri-urbanization, assuming that the increase (at the border of the cities) is proportionnal to the size of the city is not totally stupid.
Still, the above calculation has no predictive value, of course ! In particular, when there is an upper limit to something (which is the case here : it is not possible to go over 100% of the mainland !), the general evolution never resembles the above curve, but has rather a "S-shaped" aspect, like the curve below.
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This being said, this little calcculation gives a rough idea of the speed at which we are currently modifying land use in France, and underlines the fact that this is absolutely not "sustainable". To be "sustainable" an evolution must not meet its limit before a century !
Let's recall that land is a limited (and not renewable !) resource, even if we can change land-use.